We are influencing the future all the time. What we do today impacts generations of our youth to come just as we have been influnced by those that went before us. Our actions today shape our lives and communities tomorrow. Just as we have been shaped from our own actions and the actions of others in the past. We can be positive instruments of change, or we may influce less desirable change, but what we do or do not do will impact the future of tomorrow and our communities.
The problem is, our experience alone will not prepare our families, businesses, communities, or governments for the type of changes that they are likely to see. Community Capacity Builders are going to need new tools to bring about changes needed in a chaotic and changing world. Foresight and strategic thinking are going to be needed if we wish to start making decisions that will create a positive future. Those that participate in future transformation need to find tools that help them through the complexity of future options that may occur. Alternative views should be presented to help us better understand the situations we face. There is seldom one right way of doing things, and alternatives help bring about increased understanding.
Foresight and other Master Capacity Builder Tools may help us open our thinking to what may occur, or help us find ways of creating a future that we prefer. There are a number of tools that might be used by foresight professionals, a few of them are highlighted below.
The term “scenario” can be simply describe as “stories of possible futures.” The term is, after all, taken from the world of film and theater. Much like a story, Scenario planning should be designed to move us from today to a possible future(s) as part of a evolving story.
Senarios do not predict the future, but the stories created by those involved explore ways that the future might happen and are a very effective for creating new ways of thinking. We are helping to shape the future by the stories we tell together.
“A weak signal is only a weak signal from an unimaginative perspective. It is our ability to perceive that is weak, even if the signal is strong. From the right point of view, the signal is always strong” -- (Manu, 2007, p. 135)
A tool that is very useful for better understanding the future is Scanning. Scanning involves looking at the macro trends that are found both inside and outside of the organization. These trends become the baseline forecast (Hines & Bishop, 2006, p. 55). The trends are the most obvious and if followed, will form the probable or expected future. There is a problem with just following trends extending them out and thinking you understand the future. The future is not always controlled by obvious trends. There is another source of change, new or upcoming trends that are generally referred to as weak signals. Weak signals can be thought of as the change agents of trending.
Weak signals are indicators that can easily be missed (Marcus, 2009, p. 76) either because the organization and its people have not been looking for them, or because they are not part of the general trend line and are simply dismissed. The future can change, and anyone who really wants to understand changes that may occur in the future, must seek to understand weak signals. Weak signals are society changers that potentially can change the organization, the country, or even the world.
Change is a given in today’s world and everyone in our organizations need to participate in navigating change. Those involved need to become strategic thinkers. A strategic thinker is a person who thinks about the system, not just the parts. They are not limited to think of only what is in the strategic plan, instead, strategic thinkers think beyond their own industries and are interested in what is happening across industries and in the environment. Equally important they are not simply linear thinkers (Sanders 1998). Strategic thinkers bring innovation and change to help the community or organization deal with opportunities and threats.
Imagine the success that a organization could have if it is able to adjust to, or see things that are about to change. Our organizations can effectively learn on the go! By applying strategic thinking, we are able to adjust as the environment changes. Strategic thinking requires organizations accept that learning is an important part of change. This is a major leadership issue. If a questioning the status quo is attacked or marginalized within the community, others soon learn that it is not worth their effort to talk freely. If people cannot participate freely change will be either very slow, or very ineffectively implemented because there will be no feedback from the people who are implementing the strategy and it may not work without their input.
It is the leaders responsibility to “look for ways to radically alter the status quo” (Kouzes & Posner, 2002, p. 177). Leaders need to make the role of questioning and probing an expected part of any job in the organization. In other words, they need to make questioning acceptable. Questioning and thinking are the start of learning.
Peter Drucker talking about organizations says that the knowledge that a worker bring to the job is responsible for an organization’s success not the tools and equipment they have (Druker 1995), but without an ability to question and challenge the status quo, even the most knowledgeable employee is unable to advance towards the future.
Druker, P. F. (1995). Managing in a Time of Great Change. New York: Penguin Group.
Hines, A., & Bishop, P. (2006). Thinking About the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight. Washington: Social Technologies, LLC.
Kouzes, J. M., & Posner, B. Z. (2002). The Leadership Challenge (3rd Edition). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Manu, A. (2007). The Imagination Challenge: Strategic Foresight and Innovation in the Global Economy. Berkeley: New Riders.
Marcus, A. (2009). Strategic Foresight: A New Look at Scenarios. New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
Sanders, I. T. (1998). Strategic Thinking and the New Science: Planning in the Midst of Choas, Complexity and Change. New York: The Free Press.